The Orchestral Path is Not Safe
Uncomfortable truths of pursuing an orchestral career.
Is the risk of pursuing an orchestral career worth the reward?
Over the next few weeks, I will investigate this question. The benefits, risks, and sacrifices are important elements to explore. By the end of the series, I’m hoping to answer an even broader question:
Is an entrepreneurial career safer than the traditional orchestral career?
Today, I want to talk about risk.
What do you risk when you audition for an orchestra?
To best understand this question, I needed to talk to Nathan Chan.
Nathan is the Assistant Principal Cellist of Seattle Symphony. He is a fellow Juilliard veteran and a dear friend of mine. Nathan is a gem of a musician.
I remember Nathan auditioning for major orchestra positions back when we were at Juilliard in 2016. The challenges he endured and the lessons he learned have made him wise beyond his years.
I asked him for his thoughts on the changing orchestral landscape. His perspectives shocked and convinced me that the traditional orchestra musician career path is broken, and we can all feel it.
People are waking up. Change is in the air.
Why is the Orchestral Path Not Safe?
Income Risk
When you work in an orchestra, where does your paycheck come from?
Non-profit donations, endowments, and/or grants.
In times of economic turmoil, creative budgets shrink. Benefits and compensation for the arts organizations evaporate. Salary increases are postponed.
If you’re relying on a non-profit organization to pay your mortgage during a downturn, you’re in a risky position.
Audition Risk
As of 2:58AM PT on 01/18/2024, there were 88 global auditions for violin performance jobs. Yes, globally. China, Czech Republic, Norway, France, Denmark, Switzerland, Bulgaria—the list goes on. And if you’re like me and you live in North America, you’ll only find 18 jobs to audition for. This is the supply.
A quick search for violin auditions on musical chairs proves this. Yikes.
There just aren’t enough jobs.
“It’s a supply and demand problem,” Nathan confided in me.
The demand: every violinist who wants to win an orchestra job.
Wait, how many classical music music conservatories are there in North America?
According to Wikipedia, there are over 650 accredited music institutions in the United States alone.
650 US schools pumping out graduates every year vs. 18 jobs in North America.
Every year, a fresh batch of conservatory kids joins the fray, taking auditions with seasoned professionals.
When auditioning for orchestras, the supply and demand curve is not in your favor.
Miscellaneous Audition Risks
You could win a job in a city where you don’t want to live.
There are cases where orchestra holds auditions and hires no one, effectively wasting each of the applicants time, money, and effort.
This one in particular is often overlooked: Opportunity Cost
If you’re auditioning for a major orchestra to earn a decent living, you’re going to be competing with the best of the best. These people will devote every waking moment of their time preparing for this audition. Yes, people have to gig or work a job to make money. However, the time you spend preparing for this limited opportunity could be spent elsewhere on learning higher leveraged activities or pursuits.
The administration can refuse to give you tenure.
Musicians of color have more difficulty achieving tenure. The Black Orchestral Network highlights some powerful tenure reforms that would make the practice more equitable. Scroll down to “10 Steps to Equity in Tenure” to review their suggestions.
Commodity Risk
To fully drive this point home, I’m going to have to tell you a harsh, uncomfortable truth:
Every musician, regardless of which school they graduate from, enters the orchestral world as a commodity.
When you are a commodity, you are replaceable.
Now, I’m not saying that playing at an incredibly high level is easy or common. My argument is that the supply and demand dynamics of the orchestral industry are so skewed, that the market begins to treat its participants like commodities.
Because the demand (number of jobs) is so much smaller than the overall supply (profoundly gifted musicians), the market can easily replace one player with the next eager applicant. Skilled players are replaceable because they offer the same labor and or services as the next person.
Finally, I believe this is a contributing factor to the next risk I want to talk about. Because the supply for jobs remains the same while the demand increases with each graduating class, orchestral wages stagnate.
Inflation Risk
This last one is the most important to understand, and it’s also the most complicated.
TLDR: Your money loses value over time, and orchestra jobs don’t allow you to easily get pay raises.
When you win your orchestra job, your income is capped. There is no avenue for you to get a promotion or a wage increase. This opens you up to inflation risk.
“It is very difficult to increase W2 income in classical music,” Nathan explained over FaceTime. “You have to win multiple jobs in a row. Auditioning for a new job creates the necessary leverage for negotiating a higher-paying contract. Regardless of industry, employees must change jobs every couple years to maximize their salary. It is just much harder to do as an orchestral musician. I believe it’s one of the most difficult feats to accomplish in music.”
“Most orchestras negotiate Collective Bargaining Agreements every couple years to raise their base pay in order to fight inflation,” Nathan continues. “Almost always, the raises do not keep up with inflation, and management and unions will negotiate with each other over these numbers. If there orchestra is doing poorly or if there is an economic downturn, salaries can get slashed. If there is no agreement on a proposed salary increase, orchestras can go on strike, or in the worst case, (San Antonio Symphony) they can get dissolved.”
Earning predictable W2 income as an employee comes with a catch.
In today’s economic landscape, employees must consistently increase their income year after year. If an employee’s income doesn’t increase with the rate of inflation, their buying power will significantly erode over time.
MATH TIME
Let us say you win a job this year with a salary of $85,000/year. Excluding major metropolitan areas, this can yield a comfortable living situation. For many decades, orchestra jobs were reliable, predictable jobs that every musician coveted.
Unless something drastic happens in the next decade, this will NOT be the case in 10 years—much less in 25 years. Lemme show you.
Check out this Inflation Calculator
According to this calculator, the cumulative inflation rate since 2014 has been 28.7%. This means $1 in 2014 is worth $1.29 in 2024.
What about over the last 25 years? The cumulative inflation rate since 2009 has been 42%. This means $1 in 2009 is worth $1.42 in 2024.
That’s not all, though. There are economists that suggest that we will see higher inflation in the future.
In order to be conservative, let’s assume that the rate of future inflation will not increase, but will mirror the past. If this is the case, to maintain the same buying power of $85,000 today, you would need to increase your income to:
$109,403.17 by 2034
$120,723.56 by 2049
If you want a further deep-dive on the mechanics and math behind inflation, check out this site.
Don’t get too comfortable after winning your first audition. To mitigate the inflation risk of an orchestral job, you’ll have to keep winning auditions to avoid losing your overall buying power.
Before you take your next audition, ask yourself these questions:
“Is my passion for orchestra playing strong enough to artistically sustain me for the next 30-40 years?”
“Am I willing to ignore all other possibilities for my career for this singular pursuit?
“Am I willing to move to a place where I don’t know anyone. Am I ready to build a brand new life?”
“Is my cumulative experience (past, present, and future) worth the starting salary for this position? How much is my work worth? And if this salary number stays the same for the next 20 years, will that be enough money to fund:
The life I want to live?
The retirement that I aspire for?
My capacity to give to causes and charities I believe in?
The legacy I want to leave behind?
Next week, I’ll go more in-depth about the benefits and rewards of pursuing the orchestral career path. Some of the residual benefits will surprise you—stay tuned.
Takeaways
Here’s what I think: the orchestra career path alone will not be enough to sustain you for life. This path is not safe.
This is not to dissuade you from pursuing your calling. I want you to view an orchestra job as the beginning of your journey.
It’s a position that will give you stability. Beyond that, it is your responsibility to build the musical career that you truly want.
In and of itself, an orchestra job is unlikely to fulfill your every need, and I really wish this was said more often.
Financial freedom, service, and artistic fulfillment are fundamental values that I demand from my career.
I believe musicians who share my values must pursue the entrepreneur’s path in order to create a life for ourselves.
Building in Public
ThatViolaKid Productions
Checked audio files of collaboration with PitTan on Pokémon Collab
Went to the OC union orientation
conducted an interview for the newsletter
Create a content for Instagram
wholesoul/Whole Soul Music LLC
I refined our Client Quotation calculation document
Implemented fee policy for equipment usage
Created an event Quotation calculator for two different services
Confirmed our first gig of the year— Recording tracks for a clients wedding
Actually, we’ve sent out 3 quotations for gigs this year. I have a strong feeling that they’ll move on to the contracting phase, so I’m excited!
Recorded the Start Spangled Banner to submit for sports teams